Articles

Buying, selling, and reading prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, explained like the stock market. The five-minute foundation for everything else.

A $50 position on Scottie Scheffler, a Monday playoff, and a finish that paid either way. What hedging is, how the math works, and a real weekend of it.

Sportsbooks lock you in and lowball your cash-out. Prediction markets let you sell any time at the real price. Full comparison, with the hedge math.

Kalshi and Polymarket are federally regulated, but more than a dozen states are fighting them in court. The full legal picture, state by state.

Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange facing state lawsuits across the country. Where Kalshi is legal, blocked, and contested, updated for 2026.

Polymarket was locked out of the US for three years. Now it runs a CFTC-regulated American exchange. What is legal, where, and what is still in court in 2026.

Kalshi charges one trading fee, set by a formula that peaks at 50 cents. What it costs at every price, and why limit orders cut it by three quarters.

Polymarket's zero-fee era is over, but there's a twist: patient traders on the US exchange earn a rebate to trade. The full fee math as of July 2026.

A sportsbook's cut is invisible and mandatory. An exchange's fee is visible and shrinkable. The dollar math at $1,000, $5,000, and $10,000 a year.

Every contract shows two prices, and the gap is what you pay for impatience. How bids, asks, and limit orders work on Kalshi and Polymarket.

You can sell any time on a prediction market, but only when someone is buying. How to read liquidity before you trade and how to survive thin markets.

One goal can move a prediction market 20 points in seconds. Why binary contracts are so volatile, where prices get sticky, and how traders use the swings.

By the time the goal reaches your screen, the market has moved. Why racing the news is a losing game, and the second-wave repricing at human speed.

When a sportsbook line and a prediction market price disagree enough, you can lock a profit on both sides. The exact math and the honest reasons it is hard.

Most traders lose on sizing, not picks. The Kelly Criterion as one clean formula for binary prediction market contracts, and the case for cutting it in half.

The same lead is a different price in the first quarter and the fourth. How the clock moves prediction market prices, and why options traders call it theta.

Hometown bias makes fans overpay for their own team. What it costs, how to test whether your read is information or loyalty, and the hedge for heartbreak.

The market's price is the best forecast on earth; trying to out-predict it is how most traders lose. What is genuinely predictable: reactions, not levels.

A price scenario shows where a prediction market price lands if the next big play happens, before it happens. How to read one and why it changes live trading.

No formal IRS guidance exists on prediction market profits, and the frameworks professionals use lead to very different bills. What to track either way.