MLB Live Win Probability

What are MLB scenario trees?

A scenario tree shows you the projected win probability under every possible next event in a live game. Instead of just seeing the current odds, you see where the odds will GO if a specific event happens.

For example, during a close game, the scenario tree shows what happens to the win probability if the home team scores, if the away team scores, or if no more scoring happens. Each projection is anchored to the live prediction market price and shows the expected movement in points.

How accurate are the projections?

Every prediction is logged tick-by-tick and compared against the actual market movement after each event. You can view the full accuracy record on our accuracy page.